The role of random factors in predicting different sports

Football. Football matches take place in open areas, so the weather is of no small importance for the outcome of the game. Usually the effectiveness of matches is reduced under adverse weather conditions, as well as in the cold season. You also need to take into account the condition of the field during rain or snow – as a rule, it becomes slippery, and this greatly increases the likelihood of injury to players. Of course, the weather, fitness, team composition, etc. – all of this matters. But not critical. These factors need only be taken into account, and not built on them your strategy. At least that’s what professional bettors do. Betting strategy should be based on xG statistics, odds archive and ROI. It is also necessary to take into account the dispersion factor. Everything else is just an addition.

Hockey. Hockey matches are played indoors, so weather conditions do not matter. When betting on hockey, it is desirable to take into account the rotation of players – due to the long season and busy schedule, it can affect forecasting. And although the influence of the human factor here is minimal, and a draw is completely impossible, you need to rely only on statistical data and your own betting model.

Basketball. The weather and the human factor do not matter in basketball.

Tennis. As in all singles sports, the influence of the random factor in tennis is very large. Also, the emotional state and physical form of a player can be affected by the level of motivation, mood, health, injuries, weather, and even the surface of the court (considering that even many hard surfaces are noticeably different from each other). Therefore, in terms of predictability, this sport is, perhaps, much inferior to any team game.

The influence of random factors on the outcome of a match in any sport cannot be denied, of course. But to start only from this, making bets, is not a very rational decision.